January ~ August, China's steel exports increased by 26.5% to tons, compared with the same period the country's crude steel production was down 2% to 543 million 20 thousand tons, the domestic steel market atrophy significantly. High hopes of the stainless steel industry in China, from the beginning of the year began to stainless steel enterprises reduction, cut-off phenomenon in an endless stream, part of the new company was forced to postpone the launch. In the first half of 2015 the growth rate of stainless steel crude steel production has dropped from two to 6.6%. Some institutions predict that in 2015 China's stainless steel production or only 2.5% to 22 million 150 thousand tons of crude steel output growth.
Global commodity trading giant Glencore Xstrata Co., Ltd. shares has shrunk dramatically concussion means global iron ore and other commodities into the decline period, from observation, 150 carbon billet prices will fall below 1500 yuan / tons of probability is on the rise.
Contradiction between supply and demand of alloy
January to August, the national ferroalloy production for 2405.86 million tons, down 1.55% compared to the same period in 2014; the iron alloy, the net imports of 165.1 million tons (import 23.87 million tons, export 73.6 million tons), than the net imports of the same period in 2014 84 million tons (import 171.4 million tons, export 87.4 million tons) growth 96.5%; 25.71 million tons of domestic ferroalloy supply, increase of 8.5% compared to the same period in 2014, and before this year 8 months of crude steel production fell by 2% formed contrast is bigger.
In China's advantage of ferroalloy export varieties high tariff policy, our country ferrosilicon exports in 2007 was 15.39 million tons to 2013 only exported 31.3 million tons, 2015 years ago 8 months of exports only 18.8 million tons. January 2015 ~ August, the national ferroalloy export volume decreased by 18.75% compared to the same period 2014. Need to pay attention to is that the influx of foreign imports of iron. January to August, China imported a total of ferrochrome 1.826 million tons, an increase of 27.9% compared to the same period in 2014, the increase of 69.1% compared to the same period in 2013, China imported a total of ferronickel 43.36 million tons, compared with the same period in 2014 growth 151.66%, compared to the same period 2013 growth 375.44%.
Alloy prices accelerated decline
Since the beginning of this year, all ferroalloy prices continue to fall, most have fallen below the cost of the bottom line, a lot of ferroalloy enterprises in order to maintain market share had to adhere to the loss of production. Baosteel issued October High Carbon Ferro Chrome prices for 6000 yuan / ton, more than 6400 yuan in October 2014 fell 6.7%, 6850 yuan more than in October 2013 fell 14.2 percent, than in October 2012 7100 yuan fell 18.3%, down 37.5% 8250 yuan more than in October 2011. Hebei Iron and Steel Group to determine the October silico manganese prices fell to 4900 yuan / ton, compared with October 2011 9650 yuan / ton, down 97%; October ferrosilicon prices in 5000 yuan / ton, than November 2011 8600 yuan / ton, down about 72%. The LME nickel price from 58000 dollars / ton below the $10000 / ton, TISCO finalized September high nickel prices only 740 yuan / Ni. Market competition is even more tragic
Since 2013, China ferroalloy industry began to shuffle process, equipment, environmental science and other transformation and upgrading of competitive means in 2015 prices have also lost a competitive advantage. 2013 ended chrome ore incremental mining enthusiasm, 2014 thoroughly put an end to the south of the abundant water price advantage, 2015 north of silicomanganese production ambitions by the blow. In recent years, foreign ferrochrome production fast growth, and the producers while complaining about the Chinese market prices low, while fighting for market share in China, has clearly put China 12500kVA submerged arc furnace smelting the opportunity for substantial suppression and positive and production cost of Chinese 33000kVA smelting furnace of the comparison of high and low.
Chinese ferronickel industry since 2012 from inland to coastal retreat, 2014 Indonesia banned outright nickel ore exports, the advantages of rotary kiln - submerged arc furnace (rkef) completely blow the Inner Mongolia autonomous region advantage price confidence. With the stainless steel smelting "integration" technology popularization, single nickel iron enterprise jiongzhuang increasingly obvious. After the nickel plate price below 15000 U.S. dollars / ton of industry costs on average, the advantages of pure nickel gradually highlights. When the nickel price fell below 10000 U.S. dollars / ton, Philippines low grade nickel ore smelting nickel iron is difficult to show the comparative advantage. Imports of ferro nickel from April hit a monthly import sn75154 tons, imports fell gradually trend shows that foreign ferronickel production has entered a loss of the difficult situation, which add to the overseas investment of ferronickel project unknown concerns, which will drag on overseas factories building production schedule.
Industry reshuffle intensified
The industry generally believe that even if the macroeconomic changes in the fourth quarter, it can not drive the growth of the iron and steel demand, especially in the large scale can not drive a reversal of the demand for carbon steel.
National day before the introduction of ferroalloy prices, for most ferroalloy enterprises, it is not too good news. Due to the difficult economic transformation and investment limited, to maintain the production of ferroalloy enterprises will once again reduce the number of. Due to the influx of foreign iron alloy China, China made ferroalloy exports more difficult, it is estimated that after the Spring Festival in 2016 will be ferroalloy enterprises can continue to maintain production and operation of the watershed. China Iron and steel scrap smelting era is approaching, China ferroalloy industry reshuffle in the future for a long period of time will be the highlight.